The Overestimation Problem
We desperately want machines to be intelligent, so we keep imagining they are.
It’s a recurring cycle of hype (Paraphrased Headlines):
1960: ELIZA Chatbot simulates therapy 👉 “The machine has empathy, intelligence”
1980: Expert Systems 👉 Headlines: “Intelligent machines”
1997: IBM DeepBlue beats Kasparov at chess 👉 “The Machine is more intelligent than humans”
2011: IBM’s Watson won Jeopardy 👉 “The Machine understands language”
March 2023: GPT-4 👉 Microsoft declares an early AGI
December 2024: 👉 OpenAI Vahid Kazemi declares “we have already achieved AGI… better than most humans at most tasks”
Etc.
Today we assume a chatbot that writes essays must be close to consciousness. 🤔
Humans are consistent:
we project intelligence onto anything that behaves roughly like us.
Yet behaviour is not cognition.
Imitation is not insight.
We need to keep perspective. Overstatements are just that: …overstatements. They don’t make reality and they don’t help thinking clearly.
What do you think?
👉 If the question of Intelligence teases you, I just published a book about it: “AI: The Hunt for Intelligence – Beyond the Hype and Fear”.
#AI #AGI #Intelligence